ONCE THE FLURRIES STOP TOMORROW MORNING - WE'LL BE DRY THRU FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER IS SETTING UP ON THE WEST COAST TODAY AND WILL TRACK EAST THRU THURSDAY. WE'LL SEE BACKLASH SNOWSHOWERS ONCE IT ENTERS KANSAS ON THURSDAY NITE. IT'S EXPECTED TO DUMP 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM TOPEKA TO KANSAS CITY AND SOUTH TO OK BORDER WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE TAKING PLACE......
EXPECT LT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.........DRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...........
TODAY AND TOMORROW...MOSTLY CLOUDY – NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20MPH - FLURRIES ENDING BY NOON TUESDAY....HIGH TEMP 25 / LOW 10
WED THRU SAT....PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURS - HIGHS MID 20’S / LOWS 5-10 - LT SNOW FRIDAY
EXTENDED FORECAST
WEEK OF THE 21ST - SNOW
IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE SETTING UP FOR AN UNSETTLED WEEK BEGINNING THE 21ST-23RD AND LASTING THRU THE END OF THE MONTH. AN OPTIMISTIC FORECASTER WOULD SAY "AH, IT'S GUNA SNOW ALITTLE, RAIN ALITTLE, AND MIGHT GET ALITTLE BREEZY". I'M NOT THAT OPTIMISTIC RIGHT NOW.
THE UPPER ATMOSHERE CAN'T DECIDE WHAT IT WANTS TO DO, AND ALL THE LONGRANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE TOTALLY OUT TO LUNCH. THERE'S NO CLEAR PICTURE AS WHATS ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE LONG TERM..........HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING RGHT NOW.........REMEMBER IN PREVIOUS BLOGS WHEN I MENTIONED WHAT'S GOING IN THE PACIFIC? WELL - IT'S STILL HAPPENING. THE JET STREAM, WHICH ALL WINTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED OVER THE GULF COAST AND EASTERN U.S. (HENSE THE RECORD RAINS AND SNOWS) HAS TRACKED BACK NORTH. THE JET STREAM IS NOW PRIMARILY OVER THE NW U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND HAS DRUG UNSETTELED WEATHER WITH IT. THE TRICKY THING ABOUT THE JET STREAM RIGHT NOW IS THAT IT HAS SPLIT AND FORMED TWO DISTINCT STRONG FLOWS OF AIR IN OUR UPPER ATMOSPHERE, AND BOTH ARE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN (WHICH MEANS THEY ARE COOL AND WET). A SPLITTING FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSHERE IS NOT UNUSUAL - AS A MATTER OF FACT, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IT SHOULD BE DOING RIGHT NOW. IT'S A SUBTLE SIGN OF CHANGE. BIG CHANGE.....
THAT'S WHAT HAPPENING RIGHT NOW - HERE'S WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.........AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS BLOGS, I SAID ONCE THE CHANGE TOOK PLACE IN THE PACIFIC, WE WOULD HAVE A COUPLES WEEKS BEFORE WE SAW THE RESULTS OF THE CHANGE IN IOWA. THE PROBLEM HERE IS, THE LONGRANGE COMPUTER MODELS DON'T AGREE WITH MY THINKING. IMAGINE THAT - DUMBY ME.....THE LONGRANGE MODELS ARE PAINTING A PICTURE RIGHT NOW THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN FEB/MARCH. I DON'T BUY THAT. THERES NOTHING IN THAT COMPUTER THAT TELLS IT WE HAVE 1/3 OF OUR WINTER LEFT, AND WE REALLY HAVEN'T SEEN THE BIGGY WINTER STORM THAT WE ALL KNOW WE SHOULD GET. A WEEK AGO, I SET MY TARGET DATE FOR SEEING THE RESULTS OF THE PACIFIC CHANGE FOR ON OR AROUND THE 23RD. OBVIOUSLY I FORGOT TO TELL THE LONGRANGE MODEL GOD WHAT I WAS THINKING - BECAUSE THEY AREN'T THINKING THE SAME. I PREDICTED A COOL AND BELOW NORMAL FEB AND MARCH, AND ONE LONGRANGE MODELS IS PREDICTING NEAR 50 DEGREES ON THE 25TH. NOT! AIN'T GUNA HAPPEN!!!......WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE RIGHT NOW, IT IS ALLOWING A VERY LARGE POOL OF COLD AIR TO SINK INTO CENTRAL CANADA. UNLIKE THE THE AIR WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR IN IOWA, THIS AIR IS FRESH OUT OF THE ARTIC. UP TO NOW, WE HAVE SEEN COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN REGENORATED. THAT MEANS OUR WINTER AIR HAS HAD A CHANGE TO MODIFY ABIT BEFORE IT REACHES US. THE AIR IN PLACE UP NORTH RIGHT NOW WON'T BE THE SAME. THIS SAME POOL OF COLD AIR IS GOING TO MAKE OUR ATMOSPERE VERY DYNAMIC AND FLUID.
HERE'S WHAT LONGRANGE FORECASTER JOE BASTARDI HAD TO SAY ON HIS BLOG YESTERDAY: By the way, a setup for what happened in mid-February 2003 is on the table in the day 11-20 period as the cross polar flow should deliver a major high pressure system into southern Canada with new arctic air as opposed to this recycled cold, which is colder south than north. This should occur IN FRONT of what should be a major attack on the West Coast between day 8 and 12 and the results may be akin to what happened that set the blizzard of 2003 up for the area from the Plains east. Just a thought. So next week at this time, we may be talking about that in the upcoming week to 10 days.
No comments:
Post a Comment