Interesting Tuesday morning in Iowa! Temps ranged from 15 below at Ames to 27 at Decorah. We have temps within 150 miles ranging from 25 below normal to 20 above normal - something I can't recall ever seeing.
SO WHEN DOES IT END? I DON'T SEE THE TRAIN OF STORMS ENDING ANYTIME SOON. NOT IN FEB. ANYWAY. REMEMBER A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN I TALKED ABOUT THE ATMOSHEREIC PRESSURES OUT IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. AT THAT TIME, THE PRESSURES WERE AT AN ALL TIME LOWS AND STILL DROPPING. SINCE THAT TIME, TROPICAL STORMS SMASHED TAHITI (WHICH IS WHO WE WERE WATCHING). OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO, THE PRESSURES HAVE BEGUN TO TREND BACK UP. USUALLY HIGHER PRESSURE MEANS GOOD WEATHER - AND IT DOES IF YOU ARE UNDERNEATH IT. BUT WE'RE NOT......THE MAIN REASON FOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST MONTH OR SO IS DIRECTLY REALATED TO WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE PACIFIC. WE HAD EXTREMELY LOW PRESSURES WELL TO OUR WEST - AND EXTREMELY HIGH PRESSURES WELL TO EAST - OVER GREENLAND. THESE TWO COMBINED SYSTEMS ALLOWED MAJOR STORMS TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AND INTO THE EAST COAST. RECORD RAINS HAVE BEEN RECORDED ACROSS THE GULF STATES, AND RECORD SNOWS HAVE FALLEN FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST.....THERE ARE SOME LONGRANGE FORECASTERS OUT THERE (I'M ONE OF THEM) THAT BELIEVE WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE WORST OF IT YET THIS WINTER. THE WORST PART OF ALL IS WE HAVE ALREDAY BROKEN 50 AND 60 YEAR RECORDS - AND AS LONG AS THERE IS SNOW IN THE FORECAST, THOSE RECORDS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE FALL.
BACK ON NOV 23RD I ISSUED MY WINTER FORECAST FOR IOWA. I HAD FORECAST 30 INCHES OF SNOW THRU DEC AND JAN, AND I SAID 25-30 INCHES WOULD NOT INCLUDE THE PESTIER LITTLE SNOWS THAT WOULD BUILD THE SNOWPACK THRU THE WINTER. I KIND OF BACKED OFF WITH THE SNOWFALL FOR FEB IN THE SAME FORECAST. I HONESTLY DIDN'T BELIEVE THE PACIFIC SYTSEM WOULD LAST INTO MID FEB - BUT IT HAS. I MISSED IT BY A COUPLE OF WEEKS, WHICH EXTENDS MY SNOWFALL FORECAST INTO FEB AS WELL.......
SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? IT MEANS THE PATTERN WE ARE IN WILL BE EXTENDED. I THINK WE COULD BE IN A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THRU THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF MARCH. I'M NOT SUGGESTING IT'S GOING TO SNOW FROM NOW TIL MARCH. BUT I THINK WE'RE GOING TO STAY IN SYSTEMATIC PATTERN THAT BRINGS US WEEKLY WEATHER. IT'S GOING TO TAKE 10 DAYS TO 2 WEEKS FOR THE LOWER 48 TO START TO SEE THE AFFECTS OF THE PATTERN CHANGES IN PACIFIC. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THE BRUNT OF THE REALLY BAD WEATHER HAS TRACKED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. AS MUCH SNOW AS WE'VE HAD, IT COULD BE MUCH WORST. ONCE WE BEGIN TO SEE THE CHANGES (10 DAYS-2 WEEKS), THAT SAME PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF US WILL BE ALLOWED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH. THE RAINS WILL FINALLY END IN CALIFORNIA - THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL GET THE SNOWS THEY NORMALLY GET, AND THE UPPER PLAINS WILL AS WELL. MINN. AND THE DAKOTAS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY THIS WINTER. THATS GOING TO CHANGE. THE EAST COAST WILL FINALLY DRY OUT, AND THEIR RECORDS WILL BE SAFE FOR A FEW MORE YEARS. US ON THE OTHER HAND? OUR SNOW RECORDS WILL BUILD WITH EVERY SNOW FLAKE THAT FALLS....AND WE HAVE A LOT OF TO FALL YET.
ON MY NOV 23RD FORECAST, I SAID MARCH WOULD HAVE HAVE A DIALY AVERAGE HIGH TEMP OF 37F. THAT'S 7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL HIGH. I STAND BEHIND THAT. I ALSO SAID IT WOULD BE SNOWING THRU WEEK 3 OF MARCH. I STAND BEHIND THAT AS WELL.
In a nutshell: There are FEW signs (but there is a couple) yet of the kind of shift that will get us out of this pattern in the "near term", and in fact as cold and wet as it is, it may grow colder as the month wears on as the cold in Canada gets recharged by fresh Siberian air. I stated yesterday that once changes started in the Pacific (and they are taking place - in a DRASTIC way), it would take a couple weeks for the Lower 48 to see the results. I'm going to stick by that thought - with every gun I have. While we have had a Boat Load of snow this winter, we really haven't seen the big one that people will talk about for a year or two. And we may not - but we might. Let's see if my theory on the 10 days to 2 weeks change actually holds "Water or Snow" - or BOTH.......The 23rd or 24th are my magic numbers.
:-) Good Day....
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