13 MARCH Extended Forecast DISCUSSION

13 MARCH Extended Forecast

ONE MORE SHOT AT WINTER NEXT WEEKEND????? BUT FIRST - THE SYSTEM OVER US NOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THRU THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER QUICK SHOT AT A SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY. TEMPS WLL BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEK............AS WE SPEAK, COLD AIR IS POOLING OVER ALASKA. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY AGREE AT MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE PACIFIC NW BY TUESDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE CO ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND PUMP WARM MOIST AIR NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY THE WEEKEND - THAT SHOULD PERSIST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH...........ENJOY - IT SHOULD BE THE LAST REAL COLD AIR WE SEE TILL NEXT FALL.

TODAY AND TONITE - RAINSHOWERS - WINDY - HIGH TEMP 45 - TURN CLOCKS AHEAD TONITE

SUN 14TH - MORNING RAINSHOWERS - THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY - HIGH TEMP 48

MON 15TH - PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50'S

TUES 16TH - RAINSHOWERS - HIGHS IN THE LOW 50'S

WED 17TH AND THURS 18TH - PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDS - HIGH MID 50'S

FRI 19TH - RAIN/THUNDER AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS - HIGH MID 50'S

SAT 20TH - ONE MORE SHOT AT WINTER FOLKS - MARCH WILL GO OUT LIKE A LION - *SNOW* AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS - HIGH TEMP 42F AT MIDNITE AND DROPPING THRU DAY


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - 19TH AND 20TH.................DVN
FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE PROJECTIONS SUGGEST A LARGE SLUG OF NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY OVER WESTERN CANADA TO EVENTUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRY AND PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACRS THE MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS BY THE WEEKEND. AS WITH ANY PHASING ISSUES THAT FAR OUT...MANY DETAILS YET TO BE RESOLVED BY LATER MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS FOR MORE CONFIDENCE. BUT THE SIGNALS ARE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SFC WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNDER THIS PROCESS ALOFT AND SWEEP ACRS THE REGION SOME TIME LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS OF A NICE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR UP OFF THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO UTILIZE IN PRODUCING A POTENTIALLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL HEAVY PRECIP EVENT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN WHICH WON/T HELP THE ONGOING HYDRO SITUATIONS AT ALL...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS OF A STRONG IN WRAPPING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PRODUCE A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR EVENTUALLY A SWITCH TO ENTIRELY ALL SNOW WITH SOME WET ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGEST THE RAIN-TO-SNOW SWITCH OVER TO OCCUR SAT AFTERNOON FROM WEST-TO-EAST IN CRASHING THICKNESSES. THE 12Z GFS IS NOT QUIET AS OMINOUS WITH A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SUGGESTING BOTH LOWER QPF AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THE SYSTEM MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL MENTION CHC POPS FRO RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND A MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING.