7 MAY 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

7 MAY 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVED EAST ACROSS KANSAS WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHILE LT/MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WERE OVERTAKEN BY A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACHED AN INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA - WITH UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AND EAST OF HWY 63.

WE'LL SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THRU AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY EVEN SEE A STRAY SHOWER TOMORROW AFTERNOON......

SOGGY WEEK AHEAD? - AND DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT/TIME THE PRECIP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, AS WHATS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS LESS THAN TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR - IN THIS CASE, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF JUNK, AND LEAVES THE FORECASTER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN EXPERIENCE TO RELY ON.........

HERE'S WHAT I "THINK" IS GOING TO HAPPEN.......HIGH PRESSURE/DECENT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THRU LATE SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. OUR WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTHERLY AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UP INTO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY NITE/EARLY MONDAY.....BY MONDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ENE AND BE LOCATED OVER NE KANSAS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WORKED INTO SRN IOWA.......OVERNITE MONDAY, THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK OVER SE IOWA DRAGGING HEAVY RAIN/THUNDER (POSSIBLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS) WITH IT INTO TUESDAY MORNING - THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO NRN ILLINOIS BY TUESDAY NITE, BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING 1+ INCH OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF OF IOWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.........

BUT THATS NOT THE END OF IT....THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SUPPORTING THE LOW LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON - REGENERATING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE WED....THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COULD, AND PROBABLY WILL EXTEND LOW PRESSURE WELL INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S - OPENING UP AN AREA OF LOW PRESUURE THRU THE EXTENT OF THE SRN 1/3 OF THE LOWER 48 ROCKY MOUNTAINS.....THIS TYPE OF WEATHER USUALLY RESULTS IN EXTENDED PERIODS OF SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS - AND CAN PRODUCE SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS..........IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF RANGE TO SAY THIS SYSTEM COULD STALL FOR A WEEK - THRU THE 16TH.....WE SHALL SEE.........


TODAY 7TH - MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS - GUSTY NORTH WINDS - TEMP 55

SAT 8TH - MOSTLY CLOUDY - PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON - GUSTY NW WIND WILL DIMINISH THRU DAY - TEMP 58

SUNDAY AND MONDAY 9TH/10TH - INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNITE AND LASTING THRU MONDAY - THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH HEAVIER RAIN OVERNITE - (RAINFALL 1/2 INCH) - HIGH TEMPS NEAR 60

TUESDAY 11TH - MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDER - (RAINFALL 1/2-3/4 INCH) - THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS - TEMP 65

WED AND THURS 12TH/13TH - PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERNITE INTO THURSDAY - TEMPS MID 60'S

FRIDAY 14TH - MORNING THUNDERSTORMS - THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY 15TH/16TH - PARTLY CLOUDY THRU LATE SUNDAY - THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS