IS THIS GETTING THE "CART AHEAD OF THE HORSE"?
BACK IN MARCH, I PUT MY OUT MY SPRING 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST AND CALLED FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE......LETS LOOK AT THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE RIGHT NOW/AGAIN.....
I STICK TO MY GUNS ABOUT THE NORMALS, BUT THAT'S NOT TO SAY WE WON'T HAVE TIMES OF ABOVE NORMAL SITUATIONS. HISTORICALLY, JUNE SHOWS TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER MONTH AND JUNE 2010 WILL BE NO DIFFERENT.....
THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE WILL BEGIN TO SHOW US A FAIRLY STAGNET WEATHER PATTERN. THE PAST 3 TO 4 WEEKS HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT STAGNET, AS SYSTEM AFTER SYSTEM ENTERED THE WEST COAST, DUG TO THE SW U.S. AND ENDED UP POUNDING THE MIDWEST AS THE WEATHER MAKERS TRACKED NE.....THE PATTERN WILL END UP GOING MORE "ZONAL" OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. (ZONAL = WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT VS. SOUTH TO NORTH). THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL HISTORICALLY KEEP IOWA IN A SEASONAL TYPE SITUATION UNTIL THE PATTERN DOES SOMETHING DIFFERENT. THE WORD SEASONAL SOUNDS GREAT - BUT JUNE IS HISTORICALLY ACTIVE NORTH OF THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BECAUSE THE ZONAL/WEST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE JET STREAM OVER THAT AREA FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. MOST SYSTEMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THAT AREA ARE FAST MOVERS AND DUMP NORMAL PRECIP - BUT THE SYSTEMS TEND BE STRONG TO SEVERE WHEN THEY OCCUR........
MY SPRING FORECAST MENTIONED THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A TIME FRAME TO WATCH. AS TIME MOVED ON I'M THINKING THAT FORECAST WAS CLOSE. HOWEVER, IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE SECOND WEEK MAY PROVE TO BE THE PINPOINT TIME. WE WILL BE EITHER LOOKING AT TWO DISTINCT STORMS, OR ONE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.....WITH THAT SAID: DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JUNE, THERE ARE 2 DISTINCT TIME PERIODS TO WATCH..... JUNE 6TH AND JUNE 10TH........FOR A SHORT TIME, THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD TAKE ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THAT 4 DAY PERIOD......THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER - KANSAS, MISSOURI, AND IOWA BEING THE BULLSEYE....... REMEMBER: JUNE 6TH THRU JUNE 10TH.....
"CART AHEAD OF THE HORSE"? MAYBE - MAYBE NOT.........
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