25 JUNE 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

CONCERNS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.......

AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MINN/IA BORDER - NOW I HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT TO DO WITH IT. EVERYTHING IS POINTING TO THE WARM FRONT STAYING NORTH OF POW COUNTY, AND THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT. THE QUESTION COMES WHEN TRYING TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT IS GOING TO DRAPE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO IOWA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO TO SPARK THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA.......THE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH, AND MY GUT IS TELLING ME ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD (GRINNELL AND NORTH) - THIS SEEMS LIKE I'M SPLITTING HAIRS, BUT THAT'S HOW CLOSE IT WILL BE.....THE PESIMISTIC ANSWER IS TO PUSH THE FRONT WELL INTO POW COUNTY AND BEYOND AND FORECAST ALL HELL BREAKING LOOSE WEATHERWISE BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.......I'LL LEAN TOWARD OPTIMISTIC RIGHT NOW.....

ON A NORMAL SUMMER DAY, THIS WOULD BE A PRIME TIME PERIOD TO FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITHOUT A FRONT/KICKER IN THE AREA.....BUT THIS "AIN'T' A NORMAL SUMMER DAY. I BELIEVE THE GUSTY SOUTH I HAVE FORECAST WILL INHIBIT ANY INITIAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THAT'S IS TO SAY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION (HEAT RISING TO CREATE/HELP THUNDER DEVELOPMENT) FROM HAPPENING INITIALLY BECAUSE WE JUST WON'T GET ENOUGH WARM AIR RISING QUICKLY TO HELP THE DEVELOPMENT EARLY ON.....WITH THAT SAID, I'LL SAY THIS: WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NORTHWARD - ALONG I-80 AND NORTH - AFTER SUNSET.......

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.....THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON......A LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA, AND WALK IT'S WAY EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU IOWA ON SUNDAY.....ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE SITUATION WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS - AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.....

NEXT WEEK? HIGH AND DRY......HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY WORK INTO THE MIDWEST AND END THIS RAINY AND STORMY PATTERN......PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES - TEMPS IN MID/HIGH 80'S - AND NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL THRU THE JULY THIRD......THE 4TH? LOOKING LIKE AFTERNOON STORMS........

25 JUNE 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

TODAY AND SATURDAY 25TH/26TH - WINDY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY (THUNDERSTORMS NORTH - GRINNELL AND NORTH) - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON SATURDAY - TEMPS NEAR 90

SUNDAY 27TH - SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - ENDING OVERNITE - TEMP MID 80'S

MONDAY THRU SAT 28TH THRU JULY 3RD - PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY - MID/HIGH 80'S

JULY 4TH AND 5TH - AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS