6 JUNE 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

ANSWER TO SOME EMAILS I'VE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS: THE QUESTION IN A NUT SHELL......"WHY WOULD YOUR RAINFALL FORECAST SAY 1/2-3/4 INCH WHEN WE ACTUALLY GET 2 OR 3 INCHES?" ANSWER: THERE'S A COUPLE FACTORS THAT FIGURE IN.

1. ONCE I DECIDE TO FORECAST WHAT "I" THINK IS ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN, I START LOOKING AT THE FORECAST MODELS I HAVE AVAILABLE TO COME UP WITH AN ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST. ONE MODEL MAY SAY ONE THING, AS ANOTHER IS SAYING SOMETHING ELSE. THE VARIABILITY IN MODELS CAN BE HUGE - ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. I HAVE TO LOOK AT STORM HISTORY (HOW MUCH RAIN DID THIS SYSTEM DUMP ON "NEBRASKA"), I HAVE TO LOOK AT STORM MOVEMENT (THE FASTER THE STORM, THE LESS PRECIP WE GET), WHERE DID THE STORM COME FROM (IS IT TAPPING A MOISTURE SOURCE), AND IS THE STORM GETTING STRONGER OR WEAKER AS IT MOVES THRU US?

2. THE FORECAST YOU ARE GETTING IS FOR POW COUNTY.....IT'S HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT EVERY LOCATION IN THE COUNTY WILL NOT GET THE SAME RAINFALL AMOUNT. THE NW CORNER OF THE COUNTY COULD LITTERALLY BE DRY, AND THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTY COULD GET 2 INCHES - OR VISA VERSA. IT HAPPENS ALL THE TIME. JUST FRIDAY, ONE PERSON MEASURED 3/10 OF INCH WHERE THEY WERE, AND ANOTHER MEASURED 2.8 INCHES 7 MILES NORTH.....IT'S NOT UNLIKE POW COUNTY GETTING AN AVERAGE OF 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH A STORM, AND LUCUS COUNTY GETTING 8 INCHES WITH THE SAME STORM. IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE RIGHT UNDER A STORM THAT IS CAPABLE OF DROPPING 2 INCHES OF RAIN - THEN YOU'RE GOING TO GET 2 INCHES. IF THE SAME STORM JUST SKIRTS YOU, AND YOU CATCH THE FRINGES, YOU MAY ONLY GET 1/2 INCH - OR NONE AT ALL.......

THE CONSIDERATIONS IN MY PRECIP FORECAST CERTAINLY DOESN'T STOP THERE. I THROW A LITTLE EXPERIENCE FACTOR IN AS WELL.... SO, YOU SAY THEN - "THEN WHAT'S THE NUMBER WE'RE SEEING ON YOUR FORECAST?" IT'S AN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNT, THAT ONCE AGAIN, "I" THINK IS GOING TO FALL OVER THE COUNTY. SOMETIMES YOU WILL SEE A COMMENT IN THE FORECAST LIKE: RAINFALL 1/2 INCH (1+ INCHES SOUTHEAST). THAT LITERALLY MEANS THAT THE SE CORNER OF THE COUNTY WILL A GREATER AMOUNT THAN THE REST. BUT THE AVERAGE WILL BE 1/2 INCH......SOME OF YOU MAY GET 0, AND SOMEBODY ELSE MIGHT GET 1 INCH......I TRY AND EXPLAIN SOME OF THE FORECAST IN MY DISCUSSION RATHER THAN PUT IT IN THE TEXT.................................................................................................................

MOTHER NATURE IS A VERY UNPREDICTABLE LADY - BUT AT THE SAME TIME - VERY INTERESTING.

6 JUNE 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

MOTHER NATURE IS NICE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAT FINALLY WENT THRU US LAST EVENING - PUSHING THE STORMS ALONG WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THRU LAST EVENING AROUND 7PM, AND HAS SINCE PUSHED WELL INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI - GOODBY TO THAT ONE.....

ENJOY TODAY - THERE'S ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND ONCE AGAIN SHIFT OUR FOCUS TO SOUTHERLY/MOIST FLOW OVER IOWA. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE LOW AND EXTEND INTO NW KANSAS, AND ALONG THE IOWA/MO BORDER BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE FROM SW TO NE...WE'LL BRGIN TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNITE TONITE AS HIGH CLOUDS INVADE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. BY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED IN...SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL BE IN SW IOWA BY 6AM MONDAY, AND WILL HAVE MOVED INTO POW COUNTY BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.....THE GREATEST "RAINFALL" AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE TOTALS COULD EASILY REACH 4+ INCHES BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU US LATE TUESDAY....POW COUNTY PRECIP? 2 INCHES..........

UNSETTLED WEEK SETTING - SHOWERS AND THUNDER MONDAY NITE INTO TUESDAY - DRY WED AND THURSDAY - STORMS BACK IN PICTURE FOR NEXT WEEK END..........

TODAY AND MONDAY 6TH AND 7TH - INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONITE - THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON - TEMPS HIGH 70'S

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 8TH AND 9TH - SHOWERS AND THUNDER TUESDAY (TOTAL PRECIP MONDAY EVENING THRU TUESDAY EVENING 2+ INCHES) - THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY - TEMP MID/HIGH 70'S

THURSDAY 10TH - PARTLY CLOUDY - THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE - GUSTY SOUTH WINDS - TEMP LOW 80'S

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY 11TH THRU 13TH - (POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDER) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS - GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATEST AFTER SATURDAY EVENING

MONDAY THRU FRIDAY - 14TH THRU 18TH - PARTLY CLOUDY