17 AUGUST 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE:
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80'S - LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 60-65.

TODAY - ISOLATED SHOWERS ALL DAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - DRY.
RAIN EARLY FRIDAY INTO MID-DAY.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY LOOKING DRY.

A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NRN MO TODAY - SPARKING AN AREA OF ISOLATED TSHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. SHOWERS WILL END IN POW COUNTY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY PUSH INTO EXTREME SE IOWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH IN POW COUNTY, TO 1 INCH IN SRN IOWA.............

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY - BUT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED MORE IN VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE SITUATED WELL NORTH OF POW COUNTY ACROSS NRN IOWA/SRN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS WE REMAIN IN WARM/MOIST PATTERN INTO THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVERNITE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PUSH INTO ILL. BY THIS WEEKEND - HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT/SUN - UNTIL THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVES INTO WRN IOWA LATE MONDAY.

17 AUGUST 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST

TODAY 17TH - MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TSHOWERS THRU THIS EVENING (RAIN 1/4" TO 1/2") - TEMPS 75

WEDNESDAY 18TH - PARTLY CLOUDY - TEMP 80

THURSDAY/FRIDAY 19TH/20TH - INCREASING CLOUDS - THEN TSHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY THRU MID-DAY - TEMPS MID 80'S

SATURDAY THRU MONDAY 21ST THRU 23RD - PARTLY CLOUDY - TEMPS LOW/MID 80'S

TUESDAY 24TH - MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED TSHOWERS - TEMPS MID 80'S

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY 25TH THRU 27TH - PARTLY CLOUDY - TEMPS MID/HIGH 80'S



CHECK THIS OUT:

STUDY/RESEARCH ON CRIME AND WEATHER - ARE THEY RELATED?

The worse the winter, the safer the streets – or so goes the urban legend.

Compared with last winter, average temperatures are about the same, but there has been three times more snow.

Coincidentally – or maybe not – crime is down 12 per cent.

"Weather does seem to play a role (but) we can't specifically attribute the drop to the weather," said Toronto police Const. Wendy Drummond.

Or can we?

A joint study by professors at Harvard, Berkeley and Brigham Young universities proves this myth is actually fact. "I don't know why it's an urban myth because it's so well-documented," said Lars Lefgren, an associate economics professor at Brigham Young in Utah. "It sort of stands out like a sore thumb: When the weather's cold, there's quite a bit less crime."

The study, which was published last year in the Journal of Human Resources, shows that when the average temperature dropped by 10 per cent in a week, crime in general fell by 5 per cent. The opposite is true when the mercury rises.

More interesting, at least in Toronto's case, are the statistics relating to precipitation.

Data shows that for every inch (2.5 cm) of precipitation per week, there's a 10 per cent reduction in crime that week.

Using the FBI's National Incident-Based Reporting System, researchers analyzed crime in 116 U.S. jurisdictions for 1995-2001. The database tracks violent crime and property crime – which includes robbery, car theft and shoplifting – but not drug-related crime.

"We looked at hundreds of U.S. cities and matched those crimes to the local weather conditions in the county," said Enrico Moretti, an economics professor at Berkeley in California. "We found both violent and property crime tend to be higher when it's very hot and they tend to decline when it rains or snows."

The study also examined crime statistics after a heat wave or cold spell to answer the question: If you prevent someone from committing a criminal act today, to what extent will they commit that act later?

The researchers found a spike in criminal activity after chilly or snowy weather and a dip in crime after warm weather. This "displacement" phenomenon was especially evident for crimes that delivered large payoffs, such as car theft.

"The study shows it's not an opportunistic crime. (For) the types of criminals stealing cars, it's, `If I don't manage it today, I'll just make up for it later,'" said Lefgren.

Moretti said Toronto's decline in crime is likely attributable to precipitation rather than temperature. Nearly 130 cm of snow has been dumped on the city since January, compared with 46.4 cm of snow in the same period of 2007, while the past two winters have been slightly warmer than the normal average of —4.2 C, with the mercury hovering around —3C this year.

But the phenomenon still holds.

"The main reason why it might have been perceived as a myth is it's not very easy to measure," Moretti said. "You need a lot of data and you need to be very careful to control the baseline crime rate in the city."

"There are many things in the summer that could cause this, like more teenagers on the street.

"We took that into consideration."