HOW DID MY 2010 WINTER FORECAST VERIFY?

HOW DID MY 2010 WINTER FORECAST VERIFY? BELOW IS FORECAST I ISSUED LAST MID-NOVEMBER FOR THE WINTER OF 2010. THE ACTUAL FORECAST IS FOLLOWED BY THE VERIFIED WEATHER/CLIMOTOLOGY FROM OTTUMWA (DEC 2009 TO MAR 2010).

THE SECOND HALF IS MY TALKWEATHER 2010/11 POWESHIEK COUNTY, IOWA WINTER FORECAST: ISSUED 7 SEPT 2010.
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Here’s my Forecast for the winter of 2009-10…………..

Narrative: There will three major weather events through the winter of 2009/10. The overall snowfall will be at or slightly above normal in the East, and above normal in the West, and the average overall temperature will be slightly below normal. There will two “Show-stoppers”. The brunt of our seasonal snowfall will come in week 1 and 3 of December, and another in week 2 of January. That’s not to say we’re not going to have snowy days otherwise – those two time periods show signs of dumping the most snow of the season. Between those two storms, we could see as much as 25-30 inches of snow. The third major weather factor will begin in late February when temperatures begin a dive and daily averages will stay 8-10 degrees below normal through mid March. That’s COLD.

The Breakdown:

MY ACTUAL FORECAST FROM LAST YEAR:
Dec 2009 – Average Temp 30
Week 1 – Sunny, Then Snow
Week 2 – Sunny, Turning very cold
Week 3 – Freezing Rain to Heavy Snow. (8-12 inches possible)
Week 4 – Sunny and Mild
VERIFICATION FROM OTTUMWA DEC 2009
TOTALS FOR OTM
TOTAL PRECIP 1.29
TOTAL SNOWFALL 15.9
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 28.8

MY ACTUAL FORECAST FROM LAST YEAR:
Jan 2010 – Average Temp 20
Week 1 – Rain and Snowshowers, Cold
Week 2 – SNOW Storm-Windy, then sunny (15+ inches possible)
Week 3 – Snowshowers
Week 4 – Snow, turning colder
VERIFICATION FROM OTTUMWA JAN 2010
TOTAL PRECIP 1.35
TOTAL SNOWFALL 13.1
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 16.7

MY ACTUAL FORECAST FROM LAST YEAR:
Feb 2010 – Average Temp 26
Week 1 – Snowshowers then sunny (2 inches)
Week 2 – Sunny and mild
Week 3 – Rain/Snow Then sunny turning VERY Cold (4 inches)
Week 4 – Sunny and VERY Cold
VERIFICATION FROM OTTUMWA FEB 2010
TOTAL PRECIP 0.19
TOTAL SNOWFALL 4.8
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 24.8

MY ACTUAL FORECAST FROM LAST YEAR:
Mar 2010 – Average Temp 37 (7 degrees below normal)
Week 1 – Sunny and VERY Cold
Week 2 – Snowshowers and VERY Cold
Week 3 – Cold and sunny, turning warmer
Week 4 – Thunderstorms and much warmer
VERIFICATION FROM OTTUMWA MAR 2010
TOTAL PRECIP 1.38
TOTAL SNOWFALL 0.9
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 40.8

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TALKWEATHER 2010/11 POWESHIEK COUNTY, IOWA WINTER FORECAST: ISSUED 7 SEPT 2010

OCTOBER 2010 - RAINY - TOTAL RAINFALL 5+ INCHES - 2.25 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...

NOVEMBER 2010 - TOTAL SNOWFALL 1 INCH (ON OR AROUND 10 NOV) - AVERAGE TEMP 55F (2 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL - FORECAST HIGH TEMP OF 70F BEFORE MID-MONTH - FORECAST LOW TEMP 25F BY THE 21ST...

DECEMBER 2010 - SHOULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS - TOTAL SNOWFALL 6 INCHES WITH WHICH MOST WILL FALL IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS - HIGH TEMP IN THE MID/HIGH 60'S WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST WEEK - LOW TEMP OF -5F WILL OCCUR IN THE LAST WEEK - AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH WILL BE NEAR 32F - 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...

JANUARY 2011 - MOST OF A TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 12 INCHES WILL FALL IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF THE MONTH - WE'LL SEE A MONTHLY HIGH TEMP OF AROUND 48F BY THE LAST WEEK - AND A LOW OF -1F WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST WEEK - AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH WILL 22F, WHICH IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMP FOR JANUARY...

FEBRUARY 2011 - MOST OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL THRU WEEKS TWO AND THREE - DON'T RULE OUT A MAJOR ICE STORM LATE IN THE MONTH - HIGH TEMP IN THE LOW 60'S WILL OCCUR BY MID-MONTH - LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS AROUND WEEK THREE - AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH WILL BE 35F - ALMOST 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL..

MARCH 2011 - 10+ INCHES WILL FALL FOR THE MONTH - MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL IN THE FIRST TWO WEEKS FROM A STORM AROUND THE 10TH OF THE MONTH (MAY SEE SOME ICE AS WELL) - A HIGH TEMP OF 73F WILL OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH - LOW TEMP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR IN WEEK ONE - AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH WILL BE NEAR 37F - 2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...

WINTER TOTALS:
TOTAL SNOWFALL - 37 INCHES - NEARLY 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE - NOVEMBER 2010 THRU MARCH 2011 - +/- 1.50 OF AVERAGE...

APRIL 2011 - AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR APRIL IS 3.25 INCHES - EXPECT A WETTER THAN NORMAL APRIL - NEAR 6 INCHES WILL FALL, 2.75 ABOVE NORMAL...WE'LL PROBABLY SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE MONTH (75F DURING THE FIRST WEEK), AND LOWEST TEMP OF THE MONTH AROUND THE 15TH (30F)...WE'LL HAVE AN AVERAGE TEMP OF NEAR 52 - NEARLY TWO DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...