6 Nov 2010 Extended Forecast

THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH...AND HEAD NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ONE MODEL KEEPS THE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, WHILE THE PRIMARY MODEL USED IN THIS WEATHER SITUATION TAKE THE LOW CENTER WELL TO OUR SOUTH. HUGE DIFFERENCE IN OUTCOME DEPENDING WHICH MODEL THIS FORECASTER USES. I'M OPTING TOWARD THE MODEL OF CHOICE - TAKING THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY LATER IN THE WEEK...COLD AIR "SHOULD" WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND DRAG SOUTHWARD BY LATE WED NITE - FORCING A WINTER MIX (AT LEAST A LT SNOW SHOWER) INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE/OVERNITE WED..............

6 Nov 2010 Extended Forecast

Today thru Tuesday 6th-9th - Dry - Highs Mid 60's - Lows 25 increasing to 40 by Tue Morn.

Wed and Thurs 10th/11th - Windy - Tshowers changing to Winter Mix overnite Thurs - High Temp 50 - Lows 35/32.

Fri 12th - Morning Mixed Winter Precip changing to Lt Snow - Then Mostly Cloudy/Breezy.

Sat 13th - Mostly Cloudy and Dry

Sun and Mon 14th/15th - Snowshowers



Its been an interesting week, if one has been tracking the posts here over the past 10 days. Certainly the most extreme of options with a phased Tomas has not occurred. But consider this. Late last week, looking at any US generated modeling, was there any forecast even close on the freeze deep into the south this morning, or the below normal centered right over the Ohio valley or the 90 plus 2 days in a row at LAX busting records out there. Interestingly enough the busts on the model go hand in hand... you dont get nothing troughs in the east ( this is certainly a deep trough) when its 90 plus at LAX in fall.

That heat in the west is coming east and a 3-5 day period of Indian summer returns to the plains and midwest and tries to work into the east. These warm ups after chilly shots are getting less and less ( and I am talking against the normals here) and they are just about to come to a screeching halt, especially over the nations mid section where cold will be invading next week at this time to stay for the rest of the month, in fact the run up to Thanksgiving could be quite interesting in a large part of the nation with active could surging south and a vigorous jet bent on mischief......Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather, Inc.

On this day in Iowa weather history...

1990: Snow moved into western Iowa in the morning and spread across central and east central Iowa during the day. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches were common in a 60 mile wide band extending from Sioux City to Cedar Rapids with the highest reported accumulation of 8.5 inches falling at Little Sioux. The resulting slick roads contributed to dozens of traffic accidents with one fatality in Boone County attributed to the poor driving conditions. With several inches of fresh snow on the ground temperatures plummeted on the morning of the 7th breaking daily record lows in parts of western Iowa including a reading of -1 F at Hawarden.