What comes up must come down, and in the case of November, we know our days in the 60s are limited. In fact, we’ll probably want to enjoy these mild days….we’ll probably miss them here pretty soon.

There is good agreement between all forecast models of a significant cool-down. We have not mentioned much of a cool-down as of late due to the fact that occasionally, some garbage data can get into the model initialization resulting in skewed results one way or another. The agreement on models is rather amazing with the cold air influx we’ll be enduring after about November 16th, so confidence is increasing on this. While it’s tough to get into exact temperatures, the signs are clear of well below normal temperatures. In fact, the Climate Prediction Center has outlined the entire country in below normal temperatures from November 16th-22nd.

This is a model image of the cool-down. Click for a bigger image. While values shouldn’t be taken verbatim, it gets the point across that there is much colder air lurking to our north, and a significant chunk of cold air will likely break loose and spin our way from northern Canada. Early to see this? You bet, but not unheard of. We’ll see what happens. Obviously, these temperatures would yield snow should any precipitation occur.

Going to the Iowa-Ohio State game? Bundle up…I’ll tell you that right now. We’ll see if we need the shovels as the date gets closer, but the cold air seems to be a slam-dunk right now.

-Kaj O'Mara, Meteorologist
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