12 FEB 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST

First Things First:
Montezuma Annual Fire Fighter Department Fundraiser 
Pancake Breakfast
Sunday, February 13th
7:00 am to 11:00 am
Montezuma Fire Station, located at 503 East Main, Montezuma


A GREAT WEEKEND AHEAD WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 40 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT PUSHED NORTH OF POW CTY YESTERDAY AIDING IN A CONTINUED MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES THRU THE UPCOMING WEEK.  EXPECT TEMPS NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.....WARMER AIR MOVING OVER A LARGE SNOW FIELD WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MORNING FOG MONDAY/TUES ALL THE WHILE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.....THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SHOW IT'S TEETH BY LATE WEDNESDAY - FORMING A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN EASTERN PUSH INTO OR AROUND IOWA FRIDAY.  IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW FRIDAY - THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND.  TEMPS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.  ENJOY THIS WEEK!


LOOKING AHEAD......."WHAT GOES UP - MUST COME DOWN" (ISAAC NEWTON) - "WHAT COMES AROUND - GOES AROUND" (PROVERB THAT STATES:  The status eventually returns to its original value after completing some sort of cycle) - YOU GOTTA TAKE THE BAD WITH THE GOOD.......NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT, THINGS AREN'T STACKING UP WELL FOR LAST 8-10 DAYS OF THE MONTH.  WE ARE CURRENTLY IN AN 8-12 DAY WEATHER CYCLE THAT'S COMMON FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, THE JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES, FORCING WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH OF IOWA AND DRAWING WARMER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.  ONLY THE STRONGEST OF SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH INTO IOWA.  THAT SETS UP A "BATTLE GROUND" OF SORTS BETWEEN THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH, AND WARM AIR TO OUR SOUTH.....AS SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S., THE DRIVING FORCE OF SURFACE SYSTEMS (THE JET STREAM), WILL NOT ALLOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE MAIN TRACK.....(IT'S NOT UNTIL THE SYSTEMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC - ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND TRACK INTO THE SW U.S. - FORCING OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SOUTHWESTERLY THAT CHANGES OUR OVERALL PATTERN IN THE MID-SECTION OF THE U.S.......THAT'S WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE 19-20TH)......



FROM THE 19TH THRU THE END OF THE MONTH, WE WILL DEAL WITH TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS:



THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND BEGIN TO AFFECT POW CTY BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THRU TUES.  THIS IS A TRICKY SYSTEM AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 30-33 DEGREES RANGE.  IT'S LOOKING LIKE RIGHT NOW IT WILL START AS ALL RAIN FRIDAY - CHANGING TO SNOW SATURDAY - BACK TO RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY - THEN BACK TO SNOW LATE MONDAY TO TUES.  MODERATE SNOWFALL (3-6 INCHES) IS LIKELY.......



THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND THE 24TH AND LAST THRU ATLEAST THE 27TH/28TH....COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THIS ONE ARRIVES - EXPECT A SNOW STORM THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH........THEN VERY COLD AGAIN.......I KINDA STUCK MY NECK OUT ON THIS ONE, HUH?  


Today and Sunday 12th/13th - Dry/Warmer - High Temps (Mid/High 30's) - Winds WSW Gusting to 20mph.

Mon/Tues 14th/15th - Partly Cloudy Mon - Increasing Clouds - Freezing Drizzle/Fog overnite Tues - Temps 35-40.

Wed thru Fri/16th thru 18th - Breezy/Rainshowers/Fog Wed and Thurs - Thunder/Rain changing to Snow Late Fri - Temps Mid/High 40's dropping to Low 30's Friday.

Sat thru Mon/19th thru 21st - Snow Sat - Winter Mix Sunday into midday Monday - then Snow.

Tues thru Mon/22nd thru 28th - Lt Snowshowers Tues/Wed - Then Snow/Wind 24th-28th.