16 Feb 2011 Extended Forecasat

POSTED 7:30am Wed

THERE'S STILL HUGE QUESTIONS PERTAINING TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/IOWA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND........

THE DILEMMA?  RAIN VS. SNOW.  HERE'S WHAT EVERYBODY IN THE WEATHER WORLD CAN AGREE ON:  THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WORK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWS AFTER THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTOMS/RAIN, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.....AS OF RIGHT NOW, AS I SEE IT, THE RAIN VS. SNOW BOUNDARY IS SPRAWLED WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE I-20 AND I-80 CORRIDORS.  THAT COULD, AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY......

THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND MOVE NE INTO/AROUND IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING.  TIMING IS EVERYTHING HERE.   THERE'S TWO SCENARIOS BEING CONSIDERED:  1.  THE EARLIER THE SYSTEM ARRIVES, THE MORE LIKELY WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR LONG ENOUGH TO SEE AN ALL RAIN EVENT (MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS) WITH ONLY LT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES ON MONDAY.....2.  THE LATER THE SYSTEM ARRIVES THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT COLD AIR WILL HAVE AMPLE TIME TO SPILL INTO IOWA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION - RESULTING IN HEAVY SNOWS WELL SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR....

RIGHT NOW, I AM LEANING TOWARD EXAMPLE NUMBER 2....THIS TIME OF YEAR, SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TEND TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD MUCH SLOWER THAN OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR - AND FORECAST MODELS TEND TO MOVE THEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE END RESULT SHOWS....THE END RESULT WOULD BE COLDER TEMPS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION - FORCING HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW THRU IOWA OVERNITE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  3-6 INCHES IN POW CTY. (ONCE AGAIN - TIMING IS EVERYTHING)....

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Today 16th - Drizzle/Fog - then Mostly Cloudy by Noon - Drizzle/Fog/Breezy Overnite (Temp 49).

Thurs and Fri 17th/18th - Breezy - Rainshowers/Fog - Mostly/Partly Cloudy/Breezy By Late Aternoon Thurs (Temp 58) - Flurries/Windy Fri Morning - then Dry - Low Temp 32 High 40 Friday.


Sat thru Mon/19th thru 21st - Dry - Then Rain/Snow Overnite Sat - Thunderstorms/Rain Sunday changing to Snow Monday (3-6 INCHES).


Tues thru Mon/22nd thru 28th - Dry Tues - Rain/Snow Wed - Then Snow/Wind 24th-28th.


Sunday, 20 Feb - Daytona 500 Forecast (Daytona Beach, Florida)
Becomming Mostly Cloudy thru the day with Lt East Winds - Temps increasing to Low 70's.......