18 Feb 2011 Extended Forecast

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WE'VE TALKED ABOUT OVER THE PAST WEEK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE TX PANHANDLE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SW U.S.  FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE LOW INTO SW IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY.

I MENTIONED A FEW DAYS AGO THAT TIMING WAS EVERYTHING.  THE LOW WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THRU CENTRAL IOWA OVERNITE SATURDAY.  THE FRONT WILL TRACK INTO POW CTY EARLY MORNING SUNDAY - SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/SLEET.  (WE COULD EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AHEAD OF THE LOW)  UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE INTO NRN IOWA THRU THE AFTERNOON - LEAVING BEHIND RAINSHOWERS.......

WHAT ABOUT THE SNOW?  EXPECT SOME..... BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER NE IOWA.  THIS WILL SWING OUR WINDS NORTHERLY AS A COLD FRONT DRAGS COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN 1/2 OF THE STATE.  WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND MID-NITE.  LT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY MONDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL AHEAD/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF THE IA/MN/WI BORDERS AND POINTS NORTH - WITH LESS AMOUNTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  EXPECT GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ALONG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF I-35...........

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  LIKE THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND, THE TRACK AND TIMING IS EVERYTHING.  IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW, THIS ONE COULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK - ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO SINK INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ALSO ANOTHER SET UP FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SRN IA/MO.


Today 18th - Partly Coudy/Dry - Temp 45.

Sat and Sun19th/20th - Dry - Then Breezy with Rain Overnite Sat - THUNDERSTORMS/SLEET/Fog Sunday Morning - Rainshowers/Breezy by Afternoon - Rain/Snow by Evening - Snow overnite Sunday - High Temps Mid/High 40's.

Mon 21st - Lt Snow/Breezythru the day - Snow ending overnite (3 INCHES) - High Temp 32.

Tues thru Mon/22nd thru 28th - Dry Tues - Rainshowers/Breezy Late Wed - Then Snow/Wind 24th-27th - Dry 28th.

Tues and Wed Feb 1st/2nd - Dry Tues - Rainshowers Wed.

Thurs and Fri 3rd/4th - Snow/Windy.