27 Feb 2011 Extended Forecast

THE STORM SYSTEM WE'VE TALKED ABOUT FOR PAST WEEK HAS DEVELOPED AND IS ON THE MOVE FROM KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MO. AND WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...PRECIP WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT.


DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH WILL BE RAIN...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 92...THEN AFTER SUNSET A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH AND EAST OF LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...TO ABOUT GRINNELL...AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EXPECT ANY LIQUID PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LT SNOW AROUND MIDNITE - ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING DROPPING 1-2" OF SNOW IN POW CTY...........


TUES/WED WILL BE DRY - TUES TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 40'S - THEN BACK TO SEASONAL WED......


THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL SHOW IT'S TEETH ON THE 5TH, AND REALLY GETS GOING AFTER THE 7TH.  THIS WILL BE ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WINTER WEATHER......WE'RE LOOKING AT A LONG MARCH!!!!!




 Today/27th: Wintry mix/Fog ending by 10am - then Lt Rain/Breezy after 2pm - Isolated T/showers/Sleet/FZRain after 5pm - Lt Snow/Windy after Midnite. High: 38
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Monday/28th: Lt Snow/Windy ending by 6am (1-2") - then M/Cldy to P/Cldy by Aftn. High: 32 - Low: 26
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Tuesday/Feb 1st: M/cloudy but Dry. High/Low: Mid 40's Low 20's
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Wednesday/2nd: Breezy/Increase clouds late. High/Low: Mid 30's Low 20's
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Thursday/3rd: Cloudy - Aftn Rain/Wind. High/Low: Near 40 Mid 20's
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Friday/4th: FZDrizzle/Fog changing to Lt Snow Late.  High/Low: Near 40 mid 30's
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Saturday/5th: Dry.
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Sunday thru Tues/6th-8th: Dry Sun - Winter Mix Mon - Snow Tues.
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Wed and Thurs/9th-10th: Snow.
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Fri and Sat/11th-12th: Dry.
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Sun thru Tues/13th-15th: Dry Sun - then Snow.

UPDATE - NOON....
IF YOU REMEMBER FROM YESTERDAYS BLOG, I MENTIONED THAT SOUTHEAST IOWA MAY GET 3-6" OF SNOW.  THAT APPEARS TO BE HOLDING TRUE.  IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, YOU WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO HEAR WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED FOR THE LOCAL AREA ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE AND HEAVY SNOW......

BELOW IS THE BLURB I PUT ON THIS MORNINGS BLOG ABOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT: 

DURING THE DAY PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH WILL BE RAIN...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 92...THEN AFTER SUNSET A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH AND EAST OF LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...TO ABOUT GRINNELL...AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EXPECT ANY LIQUID PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LT SNOW AROUND MIDNITE - ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING DROPPING 1-2" OF SNOW IN POW CTY..........

I STILL THINK THE CUT-OFF LINE I MENTIONED WILL HOLD ON (SOUTHWEST IOWA - GRINNELL - TO NORTHEAST IOWA).  MOST, IF NOT ALL SNOW WILL FALL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LINE....

HERE'S THE BEST BREAKDOWN I CAN COME UP WITH AS FAR AS SNOW TOTALS - AND IT'S EXTREME - BUT THATS THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THIS IS.  I'LL TRY TO INCLUDE THE COUNTIES WHERE I KNOW PEOPLE RECEIVE MY TEST FORECAST - I EITHER HIT IT, OR MISS IT:

MARSHALL COUNTY - 0"
POLK COUNTY - TRACE TO 1".
JASPER COUNTY - UP TO 1-2".
POW COUNTY - 2-3".
IOWA, KEOKUK, AND MAHASKA COUNTIES - 2-4".
WAHINGTON COUNTY - 4-6".
ON A LINE FROM DECATOR (CITY-LAMONI) TO WAPELLO (CITY-OTTUMWA) TO LOUISA (CITY-MORNING SUN) COUNTIES - 6"+.



On this day in Iowa weather history...
1998: The temperature remained above freezing over the eastern half of the state for the 14th consecutive day, a rare occurrence during the winter months. The month would finish as the warmest February on record in eastern Iowa.

Also in 1998 weather history......We were right smack in the middle of a La Nina Period (Cooling of the Southern Pacific Waters) - Just like we are right now.....Here's what happened at the Iowa State Fair in the Summer of 1998 - following that warm Feb.  Weather Tends to repeat itself......

From the Des Moines Register:  Typical late summer weather led to atypical attendance for the 1998 Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. The preliminary figure of 838,211 for the Aug. 13-23 event was 112,000 less than last year's audited total, a record number.

"We had horrible weather. We started out great the first few days but then it got so hot and humid. From Monday [Aug. 17] on, there was high humidity and temperatures," Marketing/PR Director Kathie Swift said.



BELOW IS A TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GRAPH FOR THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2011 IN DES MOINES.....PRECIP IS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE GRAPH - THE LIGHT GREEN INDICATES A MONTHLY AVERAGE/NORMAL - THE DARK GREEN INDICATES "ABOVE" AVERAGE.....TOP OF CHART:  TEMPERATURE.  PINK INDICATES RECORD HIGH'S FOR EACH MONTH - LT BLUE INDICATES RECORD LOWS - GREEN INDICATES AVERAGE/NORMAL - AND DARK BLUE INDICATES THE ACTUAL READING THRU THE MONTH.......

NEAT STUFF - EARTH AT NIGHT: