Saturday, 1 Oct 2011 Extended Pow County Forecast

What to expect for the month of October 2011:

Temperatures:  The Normal High Temp for Oct is 62.5F, and the Normal Low is 36.5F.  The first 10 days to two weeks will bring above average temps to the mid-section of the country - Pow County will be no exception.  Expect High Temps to be 8-10 degrees above normal before the bottom falls out around mid-month, as average High Temps are likely to drop to 10-15 degrees Below normal for a week or so.  The coldest days of the month is looking like sometime between the 15th and the 18th.  We can also expect our first Hard Freeze during this time period.  Temps should rebound back to normal for the last week to 10 days of the month.

Precipitation:  Pow County normally receives 2.75 inches of precip thru the month of Oct.  Within that precip, we normal get around 1/2 inch of snow.  We'll see our average precip for the month, and perhaps a bit more.  The bulk of our monthly total rainfall will occur in two storm systems - the first of which is expected on the 7th and 8th, and second system should push thru the state around the 13th.  These two systems alone will likely bring 2+ inches to Pow County and SE Iowa.  Snow?  If there is anybody out there reading this Blog right now that thinks I'm going to stick my neck out and forecast the monthly average of 1/2 inch of snow on specific day in October, listen up.  You're crazy - ain't gunna do it - ain't gunna happen....With that said - anybody that has spent more than few years in Iowa can remember snow on the ground on Halloween.  I'm not suggesting there will be snow on the ground on Halloween, but there is one time period during the month that is catching my attention.  Sometime shortly after the 15th/16th, a very strong Low Pressure System will/should develop along the U.S./Canada Border (Montana/North Dakota) and extend southward - move east, and reach its peak just north of the Great Lakes.  This scenario would certainly bring measurable snows and Very Windy conditions to Central Minnesota, and possible as far south as SE Minnesota and NE Iowa.  This scenario would also bring the coldest temperatures to Iowa since the middle of April.  The jury is still out on this one - but I've at least "stuck it out there" enough to let you know what I'm thinking right now.  We'll see.         
   


Today thru next Tuesday Oct 1st 4th:
Dry thru the period. Breezy Tuesday. High Temps:  65 Today, 70 Sunday - High 70's Monday/Tuesday. Lowest Temps thru period: Sunday Morning 37.

Wed thru Tuesday Oct 5th thru 11th:
Breezy 5th thru 8th, and 10th/11th.
Rain: Tshowers on the 7th/8th, showers the 10th.
High Temps: High 70's - Low 60's after 8th - Low 70's by the 10th.

Wed thru Tuesday 12th thru 18th:
Breezy 12th thru the 15th.
Showers 12th/13th, and 15th.
Much Cooler after the 12th - Windy and Cold after the 15th/16th.

Winter 2011/12.

The basis for my forecast is the likely formation of a weak La Nina (cooling waters in the South Pacific) forming and continuing through the winter. Last years "strong" La Nina combined with high pressure over the North Atlantic lead to heavy snows across the Midwest and Northeast. Subtle changes will take place in the weather pattern (primarily a weakening dome of high pressure over the southwest U.S.) that force systems west to east out of the Central U.S. Rocky Mountains, causing a major dip in the jet stream over the eastern half of the country (East of the Miss River). This pattern would put Iowa at the leading edge of a storm track that would give us near normal temperatures leading into winter, and below normal temperatures going out. It would put the north and west 2/3 of the state slightly above normal for precipitation, and the south and east 1/3 of state at, or slightly below normal.


Iowa Winter Weather:

The southeastern 1/3 of Iowa will see Near Normal Snowfall, while the rest of Iowa will see 3-5 inches Above Normal.

What will the Winter of 2011/12 bring?
Here's my best guess right now. I'll refine it as time goes on. It may change - but it won't change a lot.......
Pow County will see Seasonal "Average Daily" Temps up thru Dec - then Jan, Feb, and Mar will be 3 Degrees Below Average.


Nov:
Average Snowfall - 2.1"
Forecast - 2.5"

Dec:
Average Snowfall - 6.5"
Forecast - 7.5"

Jan:
Average Snowfall - 8.1"
Forecast - 10"

Feb:
Average Snowfall - 7.2"
Forecast - 8.5"

Mar:
Average Snowfall - 3.8"
Forecast - 4.5"

Our Average Snowfall between November and March is 27.7". I'm forecasting a Total Snowfall of 33.0" - which is 5.3" Above Normal for the time period.

April: We'll see an inch or two early April.